Some years ago I did an internship with the task of trying to “predict” the trends of the future. I liked it a lot, and because of that I decided to try something similar here. Every now and then i will try to put out my own predictions about the things to come (FuTrends). To add a pinch of salt into the mix after every trend there is a survey about whether you find the whole thing credible or not. Without further remarks, here goes.

Few weeks back I realized that within 20 metres of my frontdoor there are 5 stores/businesses owned by Chinese, one bar, one barber, 2 clothes stores and one store that sells bit of everything (and really cheap). In addition, next to the Chinese barber there is a Pakistanese barber (who never stops working), and also very close few bars and restaurants owned by Mexicans and South Americans (not sure from which countries exactly), one Libanese restaurant, and few other businesses owned by people of non-local origin.

Needless to say, I live in a suburb that has its fair share of immigrants, including myself. It is still considered very much “local”, that is, there is also a lot of people who have their origins in here and overall the suburb upholds many of the local traditions and festivities. However, like all the bigger cities in Europe, Barcelona and my suburb with it is receiving more and more people from outside (even though the crisis has slowed the process down),  and by now one sixth of the inhabitants have been born abroad.

The picture is similar in many other European cities. There are over a million foreigners in Madrid, in Paris the figure is 19.4% (people born outside France )(1999). Amsterdam is the city with most nationalities in the world (2007) and one third of people living in London were born abroad. Some of the nationalities/ethnic groups might reside in certain suburbs, and in certain areas certain groups might preside over others, but in many cases there exists also an interesting mix.

The principal nationalities of the newcomers vary somewhat from one place to another. In Barcelona most of the immigrants come from South America or Morocco, but there are also people from Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia (notably China and Pakistan but also from countries in the Middle East) and from other European countries (mainly Italia and France but also people from Central-East European states). The origin of immigrants depends on many things. In addition to geographics etc, the colonial history of a given country has its role to play. In Madrid and Barcelona there is a lot of people from South America, in London Indians and Pakistanis are common (among others), in Paris people of Algerian origin are met more than in other European cities and so on.

Overall the variety of different nationalities in big cities can be seen as somewhat Western (here meaning European, North American and  Australian/New Zealandian) phenomenon: without a doubt there are a lot of immigrants in many other big cities in the world, but they tend to comprise of only a very few nationalities/ethnicities, such as Zimbabweans in Johannesburg or Pakistanis and Indians in some of the Middle Eastern cities etc. Furthermore, cities in non-western industrialized countries tend to have not so high proportions of foreigners. Tokyo for example only has a foreign population of 1.5%, Hong Kong on its behalf some more, about 5%, but it still stays clearly behind its Western counterparts.

There is nothing new as such in the flow of foreign people into the big cities. It is a process that has been going on for years. However, things have gotten more curious due to the increasing numbers of the incoming new residents. Every nationality and ethnicity brings along its own culture, attitudes and customs, and the more representatives there is, the more it shows. Therefore it is completely possible to experience Chinese New Year, South African Freedom Day, Mexican “Día de los Muertos” festival or Islamic Ramadan in almost any of the European big cities.  Big national, regional or ethnic events are no longer national or local in the sense that they will be equally celebrated in many other places, spiced up with local customs, and they are likely to be tied into more than one single ethnic group.

There has been other changes as well. In addition to the local languages there are significant immigrant languages existing on their side. Moreover, there are more living areas primarily inhabited by people from few different cultural backgrounds, none of which is necessarily local (in Madrid there was a school where 12 of the approx. 300 students were Spanish). This does not go on to mean that local, “original” identities are in “danger”, quite the contrary, they are most likely to stay as the prominent ones. It is just that the ambient and atmosphere of these cities have become a lot more culturally varied.

All these changes are likely to go few steps further. Since attitudes, worldviews and beliefs will be brought along as well, big cities will also start to reflect more and more the real events of the whole world. Therefore everything that will happen in country A (good or bad), will be transferred to the living areas of the people residing in european city X who have their origin in country A. Furthermore, the effects travel both directions. If something happens within the in city X within living areas of people of origin country A, country A and its people will also react. The line between national and international issues will become a lot less clear (as a some sort of an example of this can be held Australia’s Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s reassurence to the Indian government that Australia is not a racist country on the matter of attacks to Indians in Sydney).

European cities are more likely to reflect the events of the world than other Western cities due to their larger share of immigration (see US vs. Europe). Europe is also more fragmented culturally and identically than for example Australia or North America (excluding Mexico). Furthermore, due to colonization the continent holds links to most parts of the world. Thus, while maintaining their own roots and traditions, European cities will become certain kinds of ” images” of other regions of the world. Every city will reflect the events and situations of the regions where it has received most immigration. Non of the European cities will represent the entire world by itself though, it is the all the cities together that will create this miniworld within the continent. The well-being of the world will be reflected in the big cities in Europe. Everything that happens there, happens also here. Everything that happens here, happens also there.  If there are disputes between Indians and Pakistanis in Asia, there are also some in Europe. If tensions calm down, the same happens in the other place.

Finally, there is also the element of creating something totally new. As cultures and ideologies that would not otherwise meet (due to national borders or geographic distances) are almost obliged to do so, the result can be something completely new and unthought of. The possibility of clashes and other negative events between different groups exists, but more positive outcomes are likely as well. These can vary from learning to live with one another (and hoping in the case of mutually hostile groups that the effects will travel back to their places of origin) to new innovations, new ways of thinking, even new or at least shared cultures. There will be less Japanese, Mexican or French food and more Japanese-Mexican-French food, equipped with a twist of something completely new that never before has existed.

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